Incumbents have had a strong showing so far this cycle. That could change this week.

Two House Republicans from different ends of the ideological spectrum face primary challenges Tuesday: one, Oklahoma Rep. Tom Cole, is a longtime establishment figure, while the other, Virginia Rep. Bob Good, leads the party’s rabble-rousing faction. And with millions of dollars poured into the efforts to oust them, either could become the first member of Congress this year to be kicked out by an outside challenger.

Good’s race has drawn the most national attention and attracted about $15 million in spending. It’s stop No. 2 on former Speaker Kevin McCarthy’s revenge tour, which stumbled out of the gate last week when his deep-pocketed operation was unable to take down Rep. Nancy Mace (R-S.C.). Both she and Good were among the eight Republicans who voted to strip McCarthy of his gavel, and he has been working to boost their primary opponents.

Congressional battlegrounds will also be set in Virginia, and a trio of Georgia House primary runoffs are taking place.

Here are the races to watch:

Virginia

Things could be better for Good.

Former President Donald Trump endorsed his opponent, state Sen. John McGuire (and held a tele-town hall for him Monday), primarily as payback for Good’s initial endorsement of Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis in the presidential primary. One member of the Freedom Caucus, which Good chairs, backed McGuire, too. And other members of the GOP conference are actively campaigning against the incumbent — a response to him endorsing primary challengers to his colleagues.

He’s getting outraised and outspent on the airwaves, and he has McCarthy hounding him as revenge for his vote to remove him from the speakership. In all, McGuire and anti-Good groups have spent around $9 million on advertisements, according to ad tracker AdImpact. Meanwhile, Good, who has been boosted by the Club for Growth and the Freedom Caucus’ political arm, has benefited from more than $5 million in outside spending.

Good has never faced a primary before the broader electorate in his congressional career. When he defeated then-Rep. Denver Riggleman for the GOP nomination in 2020, that was in a nominating convention with tuned-in party activists. A convention was held for the 2022 primary, as well.

Still, this cycle has proved that it is extremely difficult to oust an incumbent. No outside challenger has defeated a sitting member of Congress in a primary so far this year. (The only incumbent to lose so far has been Rep. Jerry Carl (R-Ala.), who was ousted by fellow Republican Rep. Barry Moore in a rare member-on-member primary.) But this is the first case where so many forces — including Trump, one of the biggest GOP influences — are against the incumbent, creating an unprecedented dynamic.

The general election matchup for two battleground seats will also be set.

The 7th District, which Democratic Rep. Abigail Spanberger is leaving to run for governor next year, would have gone for President Joe Biden by around 6 points in 2020. Eugene Vindman, a former national security official and Trump-era whistleblower who helped spark the former president’s first impeachment, has pulled ahead of the crowded Democratic primary on the fundraising front, thanks in part to his appeal to party donors with his democracy-focused messaging. He’s facing Andrea Bailey, a county supervisor, and former state Del. Elizabeth Guzman, among others.

A handful of Republicans are running in the GOP primary, including Speaker Mike Johnson-backed Derrick Anderson, a former Green Beret who came in second place in the GOP primary for the seat in the midterms. But as in many GOP primaries this cycle, there is an intraparty divide; Cameron Hamilton, a former Navy SEAL, has the backing of members of the Freedom Caucus, as well as Sen. Rand Paul’s (R-Ky.) super PAC.

And in the 2nd District, another battleground seat, Democrats Missy Cotter Smasal, a veteran, and Jake Denton, an attorney, are competing to take on GOP Rep. Jen Kiggans, one of the handful of Republicans representing a district that Biden would have won in 2020. Cotter Smasal has the backing of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee.

Over in the 10th District, it’s a Democratic free-for-all in the race to succeed retiring Democratic Rep. Jennifer Wexton. Biden would have won the seat by close to 20 points in 2020.

Wexton is backing state Sen. Suhas Subramanyam, who’s up against a crowded field including state Del. Dan Helmer, former Department of Defense official Krystle Kaul, former state House Speaker Eileen Filler-Corn and state Sen. Jennifer Boysko.

Helmer has benefited the most from outside spending. But a woman accused him in the closing days of the race of groping her at an event six years ago — which he denies — and other candidates called on him to drop out of the race.

Democratic Sen. Tim Kaine will also find out his general election competitor. Republican Hung Cao, Spanberger’s unsuccessful 2022 foe, far outpaces his primary opponents in fundraising and has Trump’s backing. Although Kaine is the favorite in November, the top-of-ticket could have an impact, as Trump has claimed that he’ll be competitive in the state.

Polls close at 7 p.m. EST.

Oklahoma

An insurgent candidate is betting big — more than $5 million — on his campaign to unseat Cole in this safe GOP district.

Businessperson Paul Bondar has loaned himself a massive sum amid his primary effort, and has spent $4.6 million on advertisements ahead of the primary. Bondar has gone after Cole, the chair of the House Appropriations Committee, for being a “career politician” and not being conservative enough, pointing in part to his support of Ukraine aid.

Cole and his allies have pushed back, primarily with attacks regarding Bondar’s residency and his ties to Texas. Cole and Americans 4 Security PAC, an outside group supporting him, have spent around $5.6 million combined on advertisements.

Complicating Bondar’s path to victory is the coveted Trump endorsement, which Cole claimed. If no candidate earns a majority of the vote (three other candidates are on the ballot), a runoff primary election will be held in August.

Polls close at 8 p.m. EST.

Georgia

A Republican primary runoff in a safe-red seat will all but determine one of the newest members of the GOP ranks.

In Georgia’s 3rd District, a seat that Trump would have won by 30 points in 2020, Brian Jack, a former Trump staffer who has the backing of the former president, is facing off against former state Sen. Mike Dugan to replace retiring Republican Rep. Drew Ferguson. Jack finished more than 20 points ahead of Dugan in last month’s primary but was a couple points shy of hitting the 50 percent threshold to win outright and avoid a runoff.

Two other primary runoffs are taking place, although the eventual winners of the GOP runoff in the blue 2nd District and Democratic runoff in GOP Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene’s red 14th District aren’t likely to win in the fall.

Polls close at 7 p.m. EST.

A version of this story first appeared in POLITICO Pro’s Morning Score newsletter. Sign up for POLITICO Pro.

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