Colion Noir Checks the Studies Behind a Surgeon's "Get Rid of Your Guns" Advice

Colion Noir takes on a surgeon's viral response to the Bend, Oregon school shooting, where an armed dad stopped a 16-year-old shooter before police could arrive. The doctor cited research urging gun owners to reconsider keeping firearms at home, and Noir goes through her own sources to see if the numbers hold up.

Key points

• The "twice the odds" study: Noir notes the 2004 CDC research she cites uses the word "associated," not "caused," and relies on 1993 data where researchers admitted they couldn't confirm the gun in the home was the gun used in the death.
• The Kellermann ratio: A 1998 study claiming four unintentional shootings and seven assaults for every self-defense shooting only counted cases where someone was actually shot, missing the far more common instances where a gun deterred a crime without a trigger pulled.
• Defensive gun use estimates: Even the lowest annual estimate of defensive gun uses, around 60,000, outnumbers total annual gun deaths in the U.S., according to Noir's breakdown.
• Assault weapons ban data: A 2024 study the doctor cited estimated the expired federal ban prevented up to five mass shootings over 10 years, while a Justice Department researcher found the banned guns made up about 2% of gun crimes.
• Kids and guns: Noir agrees unsecured guns in homes with untrustworthy minors is a real failure, but points out her own Secret Service source shows 92% of school shooters showed warning signs beforehand.

Quick take

Noir's argument is that correlation isn't causation, and that the studies used to push gun removal don't say what the headline numbers suggest once you read the fine print.

Watch the full video: Colion Noir